1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'

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The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected player."

Despite the fact that respected money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.

"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
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So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
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Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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